GCSE results: "volatility is normal"Date: 15.10.2018
Overall, in years when specifications and overall cohorts are stable, one might expect the majority of centres with entries in successive years to have very similar outcomes, but this isn't always the case. Is this because of a failure in the exams system, different approaches to teaching, staff variability, or simply because every cohort is different from the the others?
Ofqual investigated and found that change in cohort ability profile has the largest influence on centre variability. Only a small proportion of the observed centre variability is found to be associated with the indeterminacy of the examinations system.